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Rob Coyte's Blog

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  1. Australian and Overseas Shares Cheap Rob Coyte 06-Sep-2010
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Rumoured Tax and Superannuation Changes To Be Brought In By Government

The government is currently reviewing the taxation and superannuation system. There has been a lot of conjecture on changes that may be implemented especially in regards to the next Budget which will be held on 12 May 2009.

A major concern was the fact that the government was thinking about tinkering with franking credits derived by individuals and superannuation funds from their Australian share portfolios. However, Wayne Swan as effectively quashed these rumours by saying “I personally think dividend imputation has delivered an enormous benefit to the Australian economy”.

However, there will be changes at some point and one such change may be in the Transitional to Retirement Strategy which will impact anyone over 55 years old. This being the case we would implore you to discuss with us your options before the upcoming budget because very rarely are these changes applied retrospectively.

The government has already announced a whole range of measure to make it harder for individuals to gain access to Family Tax Benefits, Seniors Concession Cards and other benefits by changing the definition of income. These measures will be introduced on 1 July 2009 please refer to  article titled Definition Changes to Income For Government Benefits for more information or contact our office.

Rob Coyte | Monday, April 27, 2009
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Which income stream would you prefer for the next 20 years?

A couple of weeks ago Queensland's richest man, Clive Palmer, bought a Brisbane office tower for $20 million. The property, which is fully occupied, will earn him about $2.2 million per annum in net income for a yield of around 11%. His comments to the media were simply “The yields on property are a hell of lot better than they are in the bank”.

The simplest lessons are usually the most effective and here you have a transaction where the income from the property is considerably more than in the bank (alternatives). Investing is about assessing the alternatives and it is this very reason that over time the share market and other asset classes such as property will be supported given this differential in returns to what cash in the bank can generate.

It is also important to note that every year the rent form this property will grow whilst bank interest will only ever be what the rate of interest will be. All other things being equal - which income stream would you prefer for the next 20 years?

Rob Coyte | Monday, April 20, 2009
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"Isn't the risk with property that the tenants will move out and not pay the rent?"
Posted: 23-Apr-2009 12:30 PM | Anonymous | 3 out of 5 stars
"@Brad. Not having income coming in from a tenant is the biggest risk with commercial property. If you have your tenants on long leases and they are blue chip or secure tenants than it is not an immediate issue to your cashflow. They are legally bound to keeping paying the rent. What you find is that if they wish to have less space they will then try to sub lease the space to another tenant however from the landlords perspective if they cannot find a sub lease tenant they are still responsible for the payment of the rent. Now, this sort of subleasing activity can have a dramatic effect on the increase of supply for commercial space. If this means that the market supply in total is not being absorbed than obviously from a future rental negotiation perspective the balance swings away from landlords which in turn leads to lower property valuations. Importantly, with the credit crisis one of the many victims has been the development and construction of commercial property. This means that the supply of new space has basically stopped from new construction which will mean that in most markets we are not looking at a huge imbalance between demand and supply especially over the medium term. There are a couple of exceptions to this in Australia namely Brisbane and Perth who have seen a lot of development over the last few years (lot driven by strong resources sector which now may start to slow). As you can see the management of these properties is crucial in ensuring they have good quality tenants on long leases and they avoid markets where the demand and supply balance over the medium to long term is going to shift away from landlords having an adverse impact on future rental income levels and in turn property valuations."
Posted: 27-Apr-2009 11:12 AM | Anonymous |

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Share Market Recovery Will Happen Before the Economic News Gets Better

Probably the biggest misunderstanding I see with clients is the interaction of the share market and economic news.

The share market reacts to what it will think will happen in the next 6-12 months whilst most economic news tells you what happened in the last quarter.

The share market started to falter in October 2007, but especially in Australia we have only started seeing poor economic news in the last quarter. Quite a time difference. What happens is the share market anticipates this news and prices it in to the market.

The share market will also start to price in a recovery before it actually happens (in theory while it is happening) so by the time we get good economic news (which always lags) the share market has already priced that in.

Rob Coyte | Wednesday, April 15, 2009
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Comments

"So when Obama says that there are 'flickers of hope' in the economy is he referring to this share market action you're talking about? So it could be more than a quarter before we get 'good news'?"
Posted: 16-Apr-2009 03:31 PM | Anonymous |
"@Kayce Obama is actually referring to some of the economic data (house sales numbers, reduction in inventories, GDP etc) that is coming out in the sense that is not as bad as everyone thought. The share market does not have any economic significance other than that of a gauge of investor sentiment. As a consequence the share market has had a rally over the last month or so in anticipation of such information. Other important factors such as the thawing of credit markets is continuing which is giving confidence that the banks will start lending as they have done in the past and the world will keep spinning these are also actions which the share market will notice and provide them with increased confidence. Importantly we don’t try to time markets over the short term and we certainly don’t pay too much credence to economists forecasts who are held in the same regard as weather men. You hear what they have to say but are then not surprised when they are wrong. What we do look for is the opportunity to buy good assets with a positive long term outlook at a very attractive valuation."
Posted: 17-Apr-2009 10:29 AM | Anonymous |
"Thanks Rob! Great insight that someone like me would never know!"
Posted: 22-Apr-2009 11:05 AM | Anonymous | 5 out of 5 stars

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Buying a Business

What many clients don’t understand before we purchase shares for them is that they are actually buying part of a business. Over time, if the business they have invested in is profitable, the business will pay out dividends to investors and retain money to invest in the business to grow profit in future years. Here is an example:

Let’s start a company named ABC. You are there only shareholder who tipped in $100. Your share would be worth $100 and it would be backed by the cash in the company’s bank account.

ABC wants to start a business selling ‘widgets’. In the first year if ABC makes a 10% profit they will make $10. They may pay half as a dividend ($5) to the shareholder and retain the other half ($5) to grow the business. This means ABC will now have assets of $105 making your one share worth $105.

In their second year, if ABC make a 10% profit they will make $10.50 (10% of $105). They may pay half as a dividend ($5.25) to you, the shareholder, and retain the other half ($5.25) to grow the business. This means ABC will now have assets of $110.25, making your one share worth $110.25.

As you can see this process continues. This is how investors can get increasing dividends as well as capital growth over time by holding profitable companies.

Our office will be closed this coming Friday and Monday for the Easter long weekend.

Have a safe and relaxing weekend!

Rob

Rob Coyte | Tuesday, April 07, 2009
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Comments

"So whats the easiest way to track which companies are the most profitable ones?"
Posted: 15-Apr-2009 04:44 AM | Anonymous | 4 out of 5 stars
"@Marc The trick to successful long term investing is to find companies that are not only profitable but can continually grow profits. How do you find these companies? The short answer is you need to do research. You need to understand what demand there will be for the companys product and how the industry in which the company operates is structured. Can the company produce the goods as cheaply as its competitors, what price can it charge for its product and what are its distribution capabilities? Centre Capital has a number of different ways for investors to access these types of companies all over the world."
Posted: 16-Apr-2009 09:42 AM | Anonymous |

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Share Market Upside, Without the Downside

This week I wanted to write about an innovative solution for investors that need exposure to growth assets (to access a growing income stream), but are concerned by the ongoing volatility that we traditionally accept as part of the investment cycle.

A small annual fee can buy you a number of options in terms of protecting the value of your account balance. This is definitely of benefit for investors that need the extra level of comfort to ‘sleep at night’; however I don’t necessarily see this as a must for long term investors.

The view at Centre Capital is, that if by paying a small fee we are still achieving big picture what we need to do, then that will leave us in a better position than if we don’t do anything at all.

In the words of Wayne Bennett; “If you do what you have always done, you will have what you always had”.

That is it for another week. For those that need a laugh, click here for some 'new stock market terms'.

Just a reminder that we have our new Client Rewards program up and running; so make sure you get your entries in before 30 June to go in to ONE OF THREE draws to win a $300 gift voucher for Red Balloon Days.

Rob Coyte | Tuesday, March 31, 2009
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Comments

"With the market so low is there any need to look at products that have a capital protection feature?"
Posted: 08-Apr-2009 08:28 AM | Anonymous | 3 out of 5 stars
"@Arthur if we are long term investors then you are right the current market offers a great buying opportunity. Generally, the cost of capital protection outweighs the benefits but if by having that security blanket enables investors to buy now and overcome the "fear" of further short term loses then the additional cost will come out in the wash anyway....leaving the investor better off than doing nothing"
Posted: 08-Apr-2009 10:53 AM | Anonymous |

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